“镇改市”过程中的制约因素与改革进路

“镇改市”是我国基层行政体制改革的试验,也是在新型城镇化过程中对基层行政区划改革做出的有益尝试。以构建大中小城市和小城镇协调发展的城镇化空间格局为目标指向,通过激活中小城市的发展“命脉”,改变单纯依靠经济推动乡镇发展的路径依赖,实现“农民城”向新型城镇的跨越,是中国经济发展的新探索。然而,随着改革的推进,缺位的行政规划设计、有限的乡镇管理能力、被异化的政绩观念、社会组织发育不成熟以及市民文化普及不到位等,对“镇改市”的推进造成一定程度的制约,成为“镇改市”过程中难以回避的现实问题。问题的化解离不开政策的引导、技术的支持和法治的保障,这三个维度相互联系、缺一不可,共同为“镇改市”改革的顺利实施“保驾护航”。     

A note on the non-negativity of continuous-time ARMA and GARCH processes

A general approach for modeling the volatility process in continuous-time is based on the convolution of a kernel with a non-decreasing Lévy process, which is non-negative if the kernel is non-negative. Within the framework of Continuous-time Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (CARMA) processes, we derive a necessary condition for the kernel to be non-negative, and propose a numerical method for checking the non-negativity of a kernel function. These results can be lifted to solving a similar problem with another approach to modeling volatility via the COntinuous-time Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (COGARCH) processes.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

‘My Parents told us that they will always Treat my Brother Differently Because he is Autistic’ – Are Siblings of Autistic Children the Forgotten Ones?

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) does not only affect the child alone, but the family unit as well. This qualitative study explored the impacts of ASD on the relationship between parents and their neuro-typical children and how the neuro-typical children cope with the impacts of having an autistic sibling in the family. Utilising principles of the social relations theory, five Singaporean families (n = 10) consisting of five mothers and five neuro-typical children were interviewed. Both the mothers and the neuro-typical children were seen to be equal agents in influencing the interactions with each other, and contributed in maintaining the close relationship through various strategies. Findings revealed that having an autistic child in the family imposed certain constraints and additional responsibilities for the family members. Despite so, the neuro-typical children coped well with such constraints. The in-depth data highlight the value of considering both the agency of mothers and the neuro-typical children and how they bidirectionally influence each other while sharing the caregiving roles for the autistic child in the family. It is strongly recommended for practitioners to incorporate elements of child's agency when expanding their scope of psychosocial intervention work with the neuro-typical children.     

An Integrative View of the Institutional Repositories in Hong Kong: Strategies and Challenges

This paper reports on the developmental strategies, challenges and directions of the institutional repositories of the higher educational institutions in Hong Kong. The study integrates the size, content, full text and public accessibility of these repositories. The paper also compares archived output with research output as registered by the Hong Kong University Grants Committee. Percentages of archived work are low for journal and conference papers, but moderate for graduate theses. These deposit rates reflect the differing institutional policies. In recognizing these challenges, the Hong Kong Open Access Committee has been formed to address regional issues in knowledge sharing.     

台湾社区工作:从“福利小区化”迈向“永续小区”

随着世界小区化服务潮流,自20世纪90年代中期以后,台湾各公共领域之以"小区化"为主轴的服务方案如雨后春笋般的出现."福利小区化"与"小区营造"是其中最获重视的两项计划;经过十余年的推动,"台湾健康小区六星计划"的出现,不仅包含了前两项计划的内容,同时也使小区建设扩展至诸如产业、环境、治安、人文等六个方面;永续小区发展策略在反思以前小区建设经验与问题的基础上出现.检视过去十余年来台湾小区工作发展脉络,特别是从"福利小区化"、"小区营造"到"健康小区六星计划"发展路径,可发现台湾小区工作发展具有多方面借鉴意义;应该从理念、政策和实务多角度省思,以有助于迈向"永续小区".     

Communication in assisted living

This study of communication in an Assisted Living Facility (ALF) focuses on staff's interpretive frameworks and situational tactics for managing elderly residents. It is based on interviews with staff and residents in an ALF together with ethnographic fieldwork. As in other quasi-total institutions, staff members engage in control as well as care, monitoring residents for compliance with rules and directives. Residents, aware of the threat of being moved to a nursing home, also monitor their own behavior and cognition in comparison to other residents. Other communication issues include the infantilization of the elderly by staff, and the race, class, and ethnic prejudices of residents.